The concept of inverse thinking helps you make better decisions. The idea is it is easier to be wrong less than it is to be right often.
I first heard of inverse thinking when reading the Book, Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models, by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann. In it, they argue that being wrong less is more important than being right more.
They borrow the analogy of the unforced error in tennis. An unforced error happens when a player makes a mistake not because the other player hit an awesome shot, but rather because of their own poor judgment and execution. For example, hitting the ball into the net is an unforced error. To be wrong less in tennis, you need to make fewer unforced errors on the court. The same applies to your life – the fewer bad decisions, the more room for good decisions.
Origins of Inverse Thinking
People have been using inverse thinking since the times of stoics with premeditation Malorum which means “premeditation of evils.” Stoic philosophers would envision worst-case scenarios and prepare for them just like most of us try to prepare for success.
By seeing where problems could arise, the logic is they could avoid those pitfalls and continue towards their path – or at least be mentally prepared for the issue if it arose.
Modern Example of Inverse Thinking
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”
Charlie Munger, Billionaire Investor
Ambitious young people often ask billionaire investor Charlie Munger about how to become successful. He encourages them to consider the inverse of success instead.
“What do you want to avoid?” he asks. “Such an easy answer: sloth and unreliability. If you’re unreliable, it doesn’t matter what your virtues are. You’re going to crater immediately. Doing what you have faithfully engaged to do should be an automatic part of your conduct. You want to avoid sloth and unreliability.
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The Overall Idea of Inverse Thinking
The idea of inverse thinking is to explore a problem by investigating the opposite of what you want to do. If you want to make more money, explore how you could lose all your money. If you want to see how you can have a successful career, start with seeing how being lazy would crater your career. If you want to start a successful side hustle, explore how you could completely ruin the company.
At first, it can feel silly to write down obvious answers. For example, the money piece. Don’t spend money. When I was doing the exercise I wrote down, “being frivolous” with my money, and then kept going. When I checked my bank, I realized I had $7 worth of subscription services I don’t use anymore.
I know it’s not a lot, but I was doing exactly what I knew would not save me more money! By inverse thinking, you can see which behaviors you are currently doing that is not aligning with where you want to be.
The Process of Inverse Thinking
1. Write Down Your Goal
What is your biggest goal for the next six months? Do you want to start running, investing more, build a side hustle, angle for a promotion, or any other type of ambitious goal? Write down your concrete objective.
2. Write Down the Opposite of Your Goal
Instead of getting the promotion, you get fired. Instead of running, you break your foot, instead of investing you lose all the investment money, etc.
What are some of the worst case, doomsday scenarios? Write those down!
3. Think of ideas for achieving the inverse of the goals
What gets you to have a broken foot? First, it could be using old running shoes, not paying attention, or running after it rains. Or you could gamble away money on risky investments instead of sticking to your investing strategy. What led you to have everything go wrong in these six months?
Get into the minute details of what went wrong. From sleeping in too much, not having a plan, going out too much, not getting an accountability buddy, or anything else that led to failure.
4. What Inverse Thinking Activities are you Doing?
I hit the extreme example with the broken foot. However, when doing the exercise, be sure to get into those gritty details. For instance, I was paying for subscription services I don’t use – that’s one of the most obvious financial savings tips! See where you have the side effects of those negative inverse thinking activities in your life.
5. Turn the Inverse Thinking into Positives
For example, I canceled all my subscription services, except Spotify which I use every day. The chance to see where I was slipping up encouraged me to take another look at my monthly budget and double-check I had everything.
With other examples like running, how can you beat sleeping in if you plan on running in the morning? You can leave your shoes and clothes out and put your phone to charge on top of them. That way when the alarm goes off, you must walk to your workout clothes, making it more likely you will go for the run. Maybe you need support, who can you ask to be an accountability buddy?
By seeing solutions to all your pitfalls, you are solving them before they even become an issue!
6. Focus on Not Making Bad Decisions
Changing your habits is hard. That is why we have whole guides dedicated to it on the blog, and some researchers spend their whole lives understanding habits.
When trying to implement a new, healthy habit, say “Run three mornings a week” sounds hard, but “avoiding not sleeping in and inactivity for three mornings a week” sounds easier.
Focus on solving your shortcomings, and before you know it, you will be living that healthy habit you’ve always wanted to do!
Conclusion
Inverse thinking works because it is fun to imagine the doomsday scenario. Then, as you find the little details, it becomes easy to see where we could fall short and implement solutions to avoid the negative situation. Humans are problem-solving machines, solving our problems, which leads us to the desired solution.
Key Take-Aways
- Use inversion thinking to overcome challenges by being wrong less
- See where you are likely to stumble, and implement solutions to make sure you stay on track
Action items
What is your biggest goal for the next six months? Do the inversion thinking exercise and see how you can get there!
